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<p><span STYLE="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin">
这是早上截的图，曾几何时，我们何曾想过创业板的交易额能够超过上证主板，但眼下却已经是事实。</SPAN></P>
<p><a HREF="http://photo.blog.sina.com.cn/showpic.html#blogid=15d4bd36e0102w5qp&url=http://album.sina.com.cn/pic/006oASkuzy72PHttvMA88" TARGET="_blank"><img src="http://simg.sinajs.cn/blog7style/images/common/sg_trans.gif" real_src ="http://s9.sinaimg.cn/mw690/006oASkuzy72PHttvMA88&amp;690" WIDTH="479" HEIGHT="54" NAME="image_operate_85991467095077388"  ALT="第一次预警创业板，小心夜长梦多！"  TITLE="第一次预警创业板，小心夜长梦多！" /></A><br /></P>
<p><span STYLE="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin">
或许这是时，也是势，但有一点很明显，看看创业板的走势，三角形的收敛已经到了尽头。可别以为到尽头之后线上突破就能鹏程万里，在尽头的突破或者跌破，很容易是假象，宁愿求稳，不能激进。</SPAN></P>
<p><a HREF="http://photo.blog.sina.com.cn/showpic.html#blogid=15d4bd36e0102w5qp&url=http://album.sina.com.cn/pic/006oASkuzy72PHv3VHf95" TARGET="_blank"><img src="http://simg.sinajs.cn/blog7style/images/common/sg_trans.gif" real_src ="http://s6.sinaimg.cn/mw690/006oASkuzy72PHv3VHf95&amp;690" WIDTH="553" HEIGHT="171" NAME="image_operate_33801467095119812"  ALT="第一次预警创业板，小心夜长梦多！"  TITLE="第一次预警创业板，小心夜长梦多！" /></A></P>
<p><span STYLE="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin">
创业板此时的攻击不能犹豫，否则就是夜长梦多。</SPAN></P>
<p><span STYLE="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; background-color: rgb(250, 250, 250);">
&nbsp;<wbr></SPAN></P>
<p><span STYLE="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin">
而之所以预警创业板风险，归根到底还是在企业上。</SPAN></P>
<p><span STYLE="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin">
过去两年炒作的</SPAN><span>TMT,</SPAN> <span STYLE="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin">
互联网</SPAN> <span STYLE="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin">
，智能制造这三大板块仍然处于去泡沫过程中。</SPAN></P>
<p><span STYLE="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin">
随着智能手机进入稳定期，</SPAN><span>TMT</SPAN><span STYLE="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin">已经缺乏想象空间，</SPAN><span>VR</SPAN><span STYLE="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin">短期难当大任；</SPAN><span><br />
</SPAN><span STYLE="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin">智能制造核心玩家和受益者为外资，</SPAN><span>A</SPAN><span STYLE="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin">股主要还是意淫，而且现在需求不振，企业在新投资上是谨慎的；</SPAN><span><br />
</SPAN><span STYLE="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin">互联网</SPAN>
<span STYLE="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin">
泡沫太大了，完全去掉这个泡沫估计要到</SPAN><span>N</SPAN><span STYLE="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin">年。</SPAN><span><br />
</SPAN><span STYLE="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin">今年新整的三大趋势板块，新能源车，智能驾驶和芯片，前者是处于业绩成长期，后两者还是概念阶段。</SPAN><span><br />
</SPAN><span STYLE="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin">新能源车有两个信息值得关注，一是上海车牌拍卖要求具备上海股籍且满社保三年。</SPAN><span><br />
</SPAN><span STYLE="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin">二是德国规定未来将禁止内燃机机动车的销售。这些政策在未来会继续蔓延。这必将刺激新能源车的需求，并促使汽车公司加大新能源车的投资力度。</SPAN></P>
<p><span><span>OLED,</SPAN><span STYLE="font-family: 宋体;">须理性的认识到目前</SPAN><span>OLED</SPAN><span STYLE="font-family: 宋体;">被三星和</SPAN><span>LG</SPAN><span STYLE="font-family: 宋体;">等公司垄断了，国内产业链没有显著优势，炒作的长期不确定性还是较大。</SPAN></SPAN></P>
<p><span STYLE="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin">
集成电路芯片产业特别是在高端芯片国内公司不具备优势，但物联网芯片因为技术门槛相对低，故确定性大很多。</SPAN>&nbsp;<wbr></P>
<p><span STYLE="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin">
分时上看，短期创业板走势走成下图这样很有可能，而最后一段的攻击速度肯定是需要特别注意的。</SPAN></P>
<p><a HREF="http://photo.blog.sina.com.cn/showpic.html#blogid=15d4bd36e0102w5qp&url=http://album.sina.com.cn/pic/006oASkuzy72PHxCs16f4" TARGET="_blank"><img src="http://simg.sinajs.cn/blog7style/images/common/sg_trans.gif" real_src ="http://s5.sinaimg.cn/mw690/006oASkuzy72PHxCs16f4&amp;690" NAME="image_operate_35501467095097407"  ALT="第一次预警创业板，小心夜长梦多！"  TITLE="第一次预警创业板，小心夜长梦多！" /></A></P>
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